How Rates Move: Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours. Rates Currently Trending: Neutral Mortgage rates are trending sideways to slightly higher this morning. Last week the MBS market worsened by -32bps. This moved mortgage rates slightly higher last week. Mortgage rate volatility continues to be relatively low. Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact mortgage rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Across the Pond and 3) Fed. 1.) Geopolitical: So far, the weekend military action in Syria has not caused a direct escalation between the U.S., Russia, and others. The market will be very reactive to any escalation. Separately, concerns over a trade war continue to increase between the U.S. and China. 2.) Across the Pond: The IMF will be meeting this week and the main subject will be how to adjust to tariffs and a potential trade war. But we also get very key GDP data out of China. The Bank of Japan will announce their latest asset purchase program levels, and the Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate and policy decision. 3) Fed: We get a lot of speeches this week, and the bond market will be focused on inflation, concern over tariffs and path of rate hikes.
04/16 Bostic, Williams
04/17 Williams, Quarles, Harker and Evans
04/18 Dudley, Fed's Beige Book
04/20 Evans and Williams
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Average Mortgage rates continue to be stuck in a very tight channel. This week we don't have any economic data that is likely to spike rate volatility. However, we have a lot of moving parts geopolitically that have the potential of moving rates. Bottom Line: If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
For ADA assistance, please email email@example.com. If you experience difficulty in accessing any part of this website, email us, and we will work with you to provide the information you seek through an alternate communication method.